Did Jimmy Carter die before the end of Thanksgiving dinner?
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190Ṁ7991resolved Nov 27
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Resolves yes if the family reports this before market close.
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Ha! Thanks for this. If I were hosting Jimmy Carter at my Thanksgiving and he did not make it there or see the end of it, the first second and third thing I would NOT do is tweet about it, post sad news on FB, call any news org
I gave it until Sunday night in case they do a full Weekend At Jimmy's
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.