Prop Bets on Love
258
6.9K
45K
resolved Feb 12
Resolved
YES
There is a contestant besides the 6 that were announced
Resolved
NO
A contestant reveals their body count is 10 or more
Resolved
NO
A contestant reveals their body count is 2 or less
Resolved
YES
A contestant places a large bet on themselves during the show to assert dominance
Resolved
NO
A contestant bets against themselves during the show, shortly before being eliminated
Resolved
YES
Aella bets during the show
Resolved
NO
Someone says "Destiny"
Resolved
YES
Someone says "Yudkowsky"
Resolved
NO
The show is canceled before it starts
Resolved
NO
Resolved
NO
A contestant claims their net worth is more than $500k
Resolved
NO
A contestant makes a profit betting on themselves
Resolved
NO
Someone says "rationalussy"
Resolved
NO
If there's a seventh contestant, it's a woman
Resolved
N/A
A contestant refuses to answer a spicy question
Resolved
YES
A contestant tries to manipulate a (Bets on Love) market
Resolved
NO
A contestant drinks alcohol during the show
Resolved
NO
A contestant admits to breaking a law
Resolved
YES
A contestant sings something or otherwise produces music during the show
Resolved
NO
Daniel admits he doesn't have 14 kids

Submit whatever you think might happen during the Bet on Love show here, and if it happens it will resolve yes.

Please make sure that your submissions are understandable with just the text in the submission, so people don't have to read the comments to know how something will resolve. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them more clear. I may N/A submissions for any reason.

Other mods who watch the show are also welcome to resolve questions in this market.

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Aella and the winner plan a second date

How come this is N/A?

@bence He said they had to be about things happening at the show

2 people attending the Bet on Love show negotiate a 5k mana or more limit order deal in-person

ok did someone do this or not? I'm inclined to N/A since so hard to judge

Audio or video production mistakes interrupt the audience's ability to enjoy the live feed for greater than or equal to 15 seconds

I wasn't watching the live feed but I interpret this being low as a No? I don't think the brief audio issues from before the show started count, and it all worked for the rest of the show as far as I know or this option would have been higher right?

@Joshua there was a host mic issue for a moment but I got the impression that was happening live and not unique to the feed?

Eliezer Yudkowsky attends in-person or makes a public statement that he watched the show

I don't think Eliezer or Robin attended, and neither placed any bets on the markets for the show. I think these resolve no if no one can prove otherwise.

A person who held a YES option on an antisocial behavior subsequently performs it, then earns a profit on that option

would @NathanpmYoung getting the crowd to chant BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN qualify for this?

@Johnnyboi Ah, if that was him then yes I think so. @NathanpmYoung can you confirm haha

@Joshua Yes that was me, though as above I'm unsure if what I did was enough. I mean maybe 1 - 5 people joined in for about 10 seconds

It would be hilarious if @EliezerYudkowsky didn't watch this show, because it was basically a homage from start to finish about his viewpoints.

A contestant places a large bet on themselves during the show to assert dominance
bought Ṁ200 A contestant places ... YES


Ṁ750 35% → 42% Feb 10, 7:42pm

The audience chants "BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN"

Wasn’t this one guy? I’d contest that that isn’t “the audience chanting”

@BrianS Seems relevant to the "someone does something antisocial to win a bet here" one, given that doesn't sound spontaneous

@BrianS when was this?

@BrianS I think I'd softly resolve this "No", and notably I'll lose the most and I was the one chanting. I guess there were a few people who joined me but it seems very generous to say that it was the audience.

@BrianS It's already resolved yes, and I can't unresolve in a prop bet market bc Manifold doesn't have that feature yet lol

@Joshua Ah thought I saw a comment last night about it being easy to fix incorrect resolutions maybe that was for a simpler market

@Joshua I'll send conflux 1k as he was the biggest No holder

@NathanpmYoung I bet YES, joined you for one of the chants, figured there’s no way that counts (I think it was just us two), and then I switched my position to NO.

Aella gets assaulted by an invisible man

Did you comment this before it happened? if so, amazing

@NathanpmYoung this would be such a wild guess (and probably insider info leaks lol) but this one and a few others were added while they were happening

Phillip kisses Aella on her deathbed

Hopefully we still have a few decades for this to resolve.

I'm not in a rush to resolve any of these to No for absence of evidence, because if there is a mistake we can't fix it afterward. If you have solid evidence of some Nos, go ahead and post about them!

@Joshua should we flip the answer creation toggle to creator only or do you also want to manage post-show answers?

@Eliza seems clear enough that no one said rationalussy, so I suggest these can resolve NO:

@jim I said rationalussy quite a few times with @TigranKarakhanyan

@YoyoY can you identify it in the video of the event?