Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will this market be above 50% when it closes?
30
Ṁ1kṀ23k
resolved Oct 26
Resolved
NO

I will resolve this to Yes / 100% if it ends with a probability of 50.0% or higher. Otheriwse this resolves No / 0%.

Technology
Economics
Manifold
Fun
Unranked
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ15,256
2Ṁ553
3Ṁ115
4Ṁ62
5Ṁ56
Sort by:

Hilarious.

@Bayesian are you proud of my superforecasting ability

@121 nice one

I won the tung tung tung sahur mana

opened a Ṁ5,050 NO at 49% order

If you buy 3 Tungsten cube during sahur, tung tung tung sahur will come to your house.

bought Ṁ7 NO

My freaking god. Tense

i don't think you mean what you said. resolves No / 0% is not defined

@Bayesian

@Bayesian What do you mean? I think the resolution criteria is clear.

@JoshSnider Oh i thought we were dividing the yes probability by 100%. Nevermind

See: https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/will-this-market-be-below-50-at-clo

I abstain because in a similar market I bet 250 on NO and some person bought a lot of YES at the very last second

@NayutaIto Oh what I said has actually happened