The Israel-Hamas hostage deal is structured in 3 phases. Phase 1 lasts for 42 days and if implemented fully will see 33 hostages released. Negotiations for Phase 2, to free the remaining hostages, are supposed to begin 16 days after the beginning of Phase 1. Some members of the Israeli governing coalition have called to resume the war after Phase 1.

This question resolves YES if the war does not resume and at least 1 Israeli hostage is released as part of Phase 2. It resolves NO if the ceasefire collapses during or after Phase 1 and fighting resumes. If negotations continue inconclusively after Phase 1 (with neither fighting not hostage releases), the market will be extended until there is a resolution, and could resolve N/A in a particularly ambiguous case.

Resolution will be based on reputable news souces and US/Israeli government/Hamas official statements

• Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria

  • In cases where there are changes to the intended structure of the phases, such as extending Phase 1 to release more hostages or releasing all hostages at once:

  • The market will remain unresolved until one of the following happens:

    • Phase 2 Initiation: If any hostages are released explicitly under Phase 2, the market resolves YES.

    • Ceasefire Collapse during Extended Phase 1: If, before all hostages have been released, fighting resumes in Gaza and official statements and reputable reporting indicate that the ceasefire is over, the market resolves NO.

    • All Hostages Released without Entering Phase 2: If all hostages (and hostage bodies) are released without transitioning to Phase 2, then the market resolves YES if the ceasefire continues for 4 weeks after the last release, and NO otherwise.

  • Note that this market is specifically about the ceasefire in Gaza; events in other regions, such as the West Bank, do not affect the resolution.