The Israel-Hamas hostage deal is structured in 3 phases. Phase 1 lasts for 42 days and if implemented fully will see 33 hostages released. Negotiations for Phase 2, to free the remaining hostages, are supposed to begin 16 days after the beginning of Phase 1. Some members of the Israeli governing coalition have called to resume the war after Phase 1.
This question resolves YES if the war does not resume and at least 1 Israeli hostage is released as part of Phase 2. It resolves NO if the ceasefire collapses during or after Phase 1 and fighting resumes. If negotations continue inconclusively after Phase 1 (with neither fighting not hostage releases), the market will be extended until there is a resolution, and could resolve N/A in a particularly ambiguous case.
Resolution will be based on reputable news souces and US/Israeli government/Hamas official statements
Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria
In cases where there are changes to the intended structure of the phases, such as extending Phase 1 to release more hostages or releasing all hostages at once:
The market will remain unresolved until one of the following happens:
Phase 2 Initiation: If any hostages are released explicitly under Phase 2, the market resolves YES.
Ceasefire Collapse during Extended Phase 1: If, before all hostages have been released, fighting resumes in Gaza and official statements and reputable reporting indicate that the ceasefire is over, the market resolves NO.
All Hostages Released without Entering Phase 2: If all hostages (and hostage bodies) are released without transitioning to Phase 2, then the market resolves YES if the ceasefire continues for 4 weeks after the last release, and NO otherwise.
Note that this market is specifically about the ceasefire in Gaza; events in other regions, such as the West Bank, do not affect the resolution.
1,000There are several cases I did not anticipate. Let me know if the following is reasonable; I am open to discussion on some of the corner cases.
There have been rumblings about extending Phase 1 to release more hostages/getting all hostages released at once. In this case, the market will not resolve until one of the following happens:
any hostages are released explicitly under phase 2 (resolves YES)
Before all hostages have been released, fighting resumes in gaza and official statements and reporting indiciate the ceasefire is over (resolves NO)
If all hostages and hostage bodies have been released without ever moving to "phase 2", the market resolves YES if the ceasefire continues for 4 weeks after the last hostage is released and NO otherwise
Also, this question is only about the ceasefire in Gaza, events in the West Bank (e.g. an IDF operation against Hamas) do not directly resolve the market.
Trump is serious about phase 2 but israel seems to be trying to sabotage again. Like an israeli sniper killing a young Palestinian child despite the ceasefire:
source 1 - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/20/world/israel-hamas-cease-fire#reports-of-sporadic-violence-cast-a-shadow-over-the-gaza-cease-fire
source 2 with video (graphic) - https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2025/1/20/palestinian-child-killed-by-israeli-sniper-despite-ceasefire
source 3 - https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/24/middleeast/gaza-israel-dead-ceasefire-child-intl/index.html
@Ammar
Just for the context: Hamas did not release Arbel Yahud according to the agreement (they preferred to release the soldiers first, for the show), which caused Israel to limit going north for the refugees. The Gazan tried anyway, despite warning, and those who got too close got shot.
@Ammar Hamas didn't even release the dead body of the babies they murdered in captivity while throwing a party celebrating their murder and returning their coffins.
@ShakedKoplewitz are you using a recent incident/revelation to justify Israel's 270 Ceasefire Violations? How many babies has Israel killed again? Why is it hard for you to condemn unethical actions by Israel? Whataboutism clouds judgement