On what date will Assad lose power in Syria?
26
270Ṁ2019
resolved Dec 10
100%99.0%
December 7
0.0%
December 6
0.2%
December 8
0.0%
December 9
0.0%
December 10
0.0%
December 11
0.0%
December 12
0.0%
December 13
0.0%
December 14
0.0%
December 15
0.0%
December 16
0.0%
December 17
0.0%
December 18
0.0%
December 19
0.0%
December 20
0.0%
December 21
0.0%
December 22
0.0%
December 23
0.0%
December 24
0.0%
December 25

Resolves YES to whichever day Assad loses power in Syria (resolution criteria on https://manifold.markets/JoshCohen/when-will-assad-lose-power-in-syria) according to reputable reporting (NYT, WSJ, official US govt announcements, etc).

Dates are in Eastern time zone, US

Will likely wait a few days to resolve to ensure accuracy of the date.

Market will be extended as needed, all current dates are 2024

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve to the date when Assad fled Damascus, based on reputable reporting.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve based on Eastern time zone (US). For Assad to have fled on Dec 8th, he must have fled after 8 AM local time in Syria.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): For Assad to have fled on a given date, he must have fled after 8 AM local time in Syria on that date. If he fled before 8 AM local time, the market will resolve to the previous date.

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