So far, all credible evidence points to Assad having left Damascus before 8AM local time on Dec 8th. Unless anyone has evidence to the contrary, I will therefore resolve to Dec 7th in about 24 hours

GIven the circumstances, it seems reasonable to resolve this to whenever Assad fled Damascus. As of now, that looks very likely to be Dec 7th but I haven't seen an exact time/confirmation yet (if someone has more info feel free to comment).

@JoshCohen Happened on the 8th per Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

@WilliamGunn the market resolves according to eastern time, US, so the following suggests it is more likely he fled on the 7th.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx89reeevgo

So far. I havent seen anything that suggests Assad fled after 8 AM local time, which is what would be needed for this market to resolve to Dec 8th.

Bashar al-Assad given asylum in Moscow, Russian media say

The reports, citing a Kremlin source, end speculation about the whereabouts of Syria's ousted president.

I will be absolutely fucking furious if he was on his own plane (big if, wouldn't be very bright to send it out as anything other than a diversion). He deserves so much worse than a plane crash, the guy (along with Putin) is responsible for some of the 21st century's worst atrocities against innocent civilians. He deserves prolonged pain and suffering.

@Lorelai Maybe, but the important thing is not being able to cause trouble again. It would be better if he was on the plane, because otherwise he might've escaped to exile to bide his time.

Azhari is Iraq Bureau Chief at Reuters

https://x.com/timourazhari/status/1865585288568827964

Now seeing Reports that Syrian army has surrendered, question criteria says times eastern U.S.

Obviously too early to resolve, just noting for later if there's debate.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso my trade for Yes on December 7 is contingent upon date being the eastern time zone date

If dates are in eastern time zone then it's looking like tonight (Dec 7, but Dec 8 in Syria)

@Lorelai Agreed Dec 7 is likely resolution at this point. Will wait a bit to resolve until confirmed by several reputable sources