When will Assad lose power in Syria?
Basic
31
Ṁ1598resolved Dec 8
100%99.1%
December 2024
0.2%
January 2025
0.2%
February 2025
0.1%
March 2025
0.4%Other
Resolves YES when 1 of the following happens:
Bashar al-Assad is no longer the leader of the Syrian Arab Republic
A government of Sryia not led by Assad is internationally recognized (e.g. has a UN seat)
Reputable sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, etc) report that Assad has fled the country or lost power
Note that this market can resolve yes even if Assad is the leader of a small region of Syria as long as he has no realistic claim to being the leader of the country as a whole.
Later dates can be added if/as needed
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
In which country will Assad be on Jan 1, 2025?
Syrian election by April 2025?
23% chance
Assad dead in 2024?
1% chance
Who will be the next president of Syria? 🇸🇾
Will the Syrian civil war end before 2025?
10% chance
Will the Syrian civil war continue (for more than 6 months) after the Assad regime falls?
56% chance
Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2025?
39% chance
Predictions about Syria in 2026
Will Syria hold legitimate elections before the end of 2026?
52% chance
Will Mohammed al-Bashir remain Prime Minister of Syria until March 1, 2025?
65% chance