When will Assad lose power in Syria?
Basic
31
Ṁ1598resolved Dec 8
100%99.1%
December 2024
0.2%
January 2025
0.2%
February 2025
0.1%
March 2025
0.4%Other
Resolves YES when 1 of the following happens:
Bashar al-Assad is no longer the leader of the Syrian Arab Republic
A government of Sryia not led by Assad is internationally recognized (e.g. has a UN seat)
Reputable sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, etc) report that Assad has fled the country or lost power
Note that this market can resolve yes even if Assad is the leader of a small region of Syria as long as he has no realistic claim to being the leader of the country as a whole.
Later dates can be added if/as needed
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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