Manifold calls markets "ancient" If they haven't had any trades for at least three months. If this market is ever ancient before it closes, it resolves YES.
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Actually, it's easy to ensure that this market won't be ancient, since trades can be placed via API and API calls can be scheduled.
Maybe that could be fixed by using some experimental market structure like in https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-still-exist-at-the.
@XavierBaton Hovering over the closes 2024 tells me 1 Jan 2024 04:59:00 but you may be in a different time zone. Seems creators can also change this if they want even after it has closed but I have no reason to expect that would happen here.
@ChristopherRandles Yeah, the close date isn't going to change. It will close at the end of the year in Eastern Time.
@JosephNoonan It's impossible for this to become an ancient market before the end of the year since that's now less than 3 months away, so why not close it sooner? I suppose if 3 months means 90 days and not literal months, then this won't be true until October 3rd.
@zQ4Z82W I'm pretty sure it is 3 literal months. I guess I will see what traders think as far as resolving it early. Since there are no meta-markets about this one that rely on the original close date staying intact, I don't think it would cause any problems. If I do, though, I will wait until October 3 just in case you're correct that it's just 90 days, and not 3 literal months.