The bracket currently labeled "???". It can be a real or fictional material, and any state of matter, as long as it's clear that the name refers to some substance.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ139 | |
| 2 | Ṁ35 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Referencing the other market that has already closed I did some simple estimations:
Rather than by shares, which is heavily influenced by individual traders, I counted the number of traders for each position and also eliminated choices I couldn't imagine being chosen ("Nuclear pasta" for instance).
With a negative number representing non-material choices, and a positive number representing material choices, for the number of traders, the net count is -96.
If the count is not weighted by number of traders in a position and we are just counting the number of answers, the count is -8.
Counting the total number of positions (excluding those I eliminated) for all the answers (top is 20 for Master, for instance) , the number is 258. Edit: Doing this without weighting by answer (just counting the number of answers) is 70. I'm using these numbers to try to normalize (in terms plausibility) the previous counts to the range 0 to 1:
((-96/258) + 1) / 2) ~= 0.31
((-8/70) + 1) / 2) ~= 0.44
So that leaves me with two wisdom of the crowd type probability estimates for this market:
Weighted: 0.31
Unweighted: 0.44
Based on this I am betting NO, that it won't be material inclined.