Will Manifold add multiple choice markets with fixed, non-unity total probabilities by the end of August?
Basic
33
Ṁ22k
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Currently, the sum of all the probabilities in a multiple choice market must be 100%. However, some markets are guaranteed to resolve to a fixed number of options that is more than one (for example, /JosephNoonan/who-will-promote-to-masters-in-the is guaranteed to resolve to four options). Currently, the way to do this is to have them each resolve to 100%/N, where N is the number of options that are chosen. But it would be better if they could each resolve to 100%, with the sum of the probabilities of all options being 100%*N. Will it be possible to create a market like this by the end of August? It must be possible for any user to create it, not just employees or users selected to test the feature.

Note that this not the same as /jack/will-manifold-add-multiple-choice-w. That is about questions where the probabilities of each option are determined independently, while this is about whether they can be constrained to add up to some non-unity constant value.

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