Sigh, another market where intuition says it's quite mispriced but I don't do much because I don't want to bother with the details (was considering trying to build a large position here but I would have needed to check a bunch of things before that and didn't feel like it). Since it was an advance prediction and there's speculation in the blog post for why that might have happened, I think this chart from the first post explains everything:

https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-3-manifolds-favorites

@JosephNoonan Very fun! I figured the YouTube one had to be overpriced because of the methodology, mostly for the reasons outlined in your post. He’s also known to be pretty divisive and has a cult following, nowhere near the appeal of a CGP Grey or Tom Scott. I thought 3b1b would do very well but didn’t expect him to run away with it!

Thanks for running these, it’s been great fun.

What's this? A clue? What could it mean?

You've really got me on the edge of my seat here.

@JosephNoonan pokemon GO to the nord's favor

I made some more markets on the survey results. I might be able to get them released tomorrow, but if not, it should be the next day.

Considering that it would be funny if it did:

https://manifold.markets/c0m/will-plasmas-market-which-of-my-man?r=YzBt

Will Plasma’s market ‘Which of my Manifold's favorites categories had a massive upset?’ itself have an upset?

50% chance. Resolves yes if an option with less than <30% at close wins. Resolves no if an answer with >= 30% wins. This will be resolved yes or no even if there's some kind of catastrophic leak that makes the answer obvious. . https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/which-of-my-manifolds-favorites-cat?r=YzBt [link preview]I might bet in this market

@c0m Massive upset version

https://manifold.markets/c0m/will-plasmas-market-which-of-my-man-c40cd5a9e6c6?r=YzBt

Will Plasma’s market ‘Which of my Manifold's favorites categories had a massive upset?’ itself have a massive upset?

61% chance. Resolves yes if an option with less than <5% at close wins. Resolves no if an answer with >= 5% wins. This will be resolved yes or no even if there's some kind of catastrophic leak that makes the answer obvious. https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/which-of-my-manifolds-favorites-cat?r=YzBt [link preview]I might bet in this market.

Just noticed that with how I phrased these in the description, it can make it worth for someone to, for example, buy/sell in this market to get all markets <30% last minute and max bet no on the upset market at close.

I won’t change the wording of the title, but making it clear here.

I encourage and will respect the outcome if created by an actor like this.

Also whoops just noticed plasma already made a market like this but mine resolves differently.

Some thoughts:
- Many people hate LOTR. The books are thick and full of long unimportant passages, and many people dislike Tolkein's style of Prose.
- I personally don't know many people who have any opinion about Destiny but I could see him being disliked outside of his fan base. Maybe he annoyed people at Manifest? I heard the debate was not good.
- Could be Ozymandias. People tend to hate poems they learn in school.
- I really doubt it's chess. It's a classic. Maybe not as played nowadays as other board games, but I've never met anyone who actually disliked chess
- I also don't get why Manifold would dislike D&D. Usually people dislike it just because it's for nerds, but c'mon, we're all nerds here and high school is over. But maybe this is a case of many Tabletop gamers treating D&D as a gateway drug but liking other games more?
- I can see this being breaking bad. I know several people who didn't like it.
- There's a few categories with only niche works that I expect only ~10 respondents have engaged with, so that's likely to create some statistical noise. Short stories, podcasts, webcomics (except xkcd I guess)

(I dislike chess)

I’m just hedging…….

Interesting. There always seem to be two options that people think are most likely, but every time I look, it's a different two.

We live in the golden age of tabletop games, I don't think there's a chance in hell that Chess was rated higher than Codenames or Pandemic.

@Joshua I agree board games are a top contender but I also think more people despise Hamilton (more devisive), so plays are up there for me

maaaybe but Hamilton was a last minute spike from 25% to 50% in a market that only had 10 traders. Chess was on top the whole time in a market with 51 traders and second place was 10%.

I will reluctantly hedge with RPGs in case you're all philistines who have never played a proper game of D&D

@Joshua eh DnD sucks

@Joshua Yes but there's a difference between that and being next to last. Many people know chess but very few hate it.

I'm putting this here just that there's no information asymmetry for people who aren't on the Discord.

xkcd was the upset wasn't it

If XKCD was nearly dead last I would actually be flabbergasted.