How many of "Manifold's favorites" would change if I only included (at least 10) people who know each work?
FunManifoldManifold UsersMeta-ForecastingManifold SurveysPlasma's Manifold surveyManifold's favorites
Mini
6
Ṁ210
resolved Oct 13
100%33%
7 - 10
1.9%
None
8%
1 - 3
24%
4 - 6
20%
11 - 13
13%
All 14

I've created 14 markets asking, "What is Manifold's favorite X?" that resolve based on a survey where participants can rank each work as "Excellent", "Good", "Okay", "Bad", or "Haven't seen/read/played/heard". The way I will choose Manifold's favorite is just by taking 2*(no. of "Excellent" rankings) + (no. of "Good" rankings) - (no. of "Bad" rankings). This means that a work that more people are familiar with has an advantage, since it's more likely to get more Excellent or Good rankings.

Although I think this is the most faithful interpretation of "favorite", it's also interesting to see which work Manifold judges as the best, that is, "What do the people who have actually seen/read/played/heard the work think of it?" To determine that, I could exclude all the "Haven't seen/read/played/heard" ratings, and take the average, rather than the sum, of the remaining ratings to see what the average person who is familiar with the work thinks. There is still an issue with this, though, which is that some works might have almost no one who is familiar with them, and then the average would be based on an extremely small sample size and therefore unreliable. For this market, I will only consider options that at least ten people gave a score (Excellent, Good, Okay, or Bad) to. I will resolve to the number of categories for which the favorite, based on this average, is different from the favorite based on overall score.

If there's a tie when using any method, I'll count it as a full change unless both methods result in the exact same options being tied (in other words, I'm not bothering with "partial agreement" like I did in the dwarf planet market).

The Manifold's favorites markets are:

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-movie

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-book

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-tv-show

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-print-co

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-webcomic

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-song

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-video-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-board-ga

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-roleplay

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-short-st

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-poem

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-podcast

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-youtube

/JosephNoonan/what-is-manifolds-favorite-play

If I add any others, they won't count for this market.

See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9

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There were nine changes in the original market, but one of them was in the song category, where a song with <10 listeners would have been the winner if we had used the average. So for this market, there are only eight.

https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-3-manifolds-favorites

Survey Results Pt. 3: Manifold's favorites
Alright, everyone. It’s time for the part I know you’ve all been waiting for. What were the winners of the Manifold’s favorites section, and which category had the mysterious upset? For anyone who doesn’t know how this works, I ran a series of free response markets asking what Manifold’s favorite movie, book, TV show, print comic, webcomic, song, video game, board game, role-playing game, short story, poem, podcast, YouTube channel, and play are. In each of these markets, users could submit any work they wanted as an option, as long as it was a member of the right category of work. Then, on my Manifold survey, I included a section asking what users thought of each option. They could either rank it as “Excellent,” “Good,” “Okay,” or “Bad,” or select that they hadn’t watched it, read it, heard it, etc. To determine “Manifold’s favorite” in each category, I converted these qualitative ratings into scores: Excellent = 2, Good = 1, Okay = 0, and Bad = -1, and then I added up the scores from each respondent to get a total score. I used a total, rather than an average, so that a work has an advantage if more people actually know about it - it wouldn’t be Manifold’s favorite if it’s only beloved by a small but dedicated group of Manifolders.

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