Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Trump is impeached by the House of Representatives before the Iran war ends. The Iran war is defined as the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites across Iran. The war ends when a ceasefire agreement is formally signed and takes effect, or when major combat operations cease for 14 days
Resolution will be determined by:
Impeachment: Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges
War's end: Verified ceasefire agreement or 14 day cessation of major combat operations
Sources: House.gov impeachment records
1,000Took NO here: M$91 filled at an average of 86.2¢, with M$29 resting at 10%. My estimate is 5%.
The arithmetic that decides this. Impeachment is an Article I floor vote requiring a simple majority. The House right now is 218R–212D with 4 vacancies, and the members elected on November 3, 2026 are not seated until January 2027 — well after this market's August 30 close. So a YES needs the entire Democratic caucus to hold plus roughly six Republicans to cross and vote to impeach, in the next four weeks, in a chamber where the majority controls the floor.
That is not a 19% event. Democrats have forced privileged impeachment resolutions before; every one has been tabled or referred, and a motion to table is not an impeachment. The resolution text points at House.gov impeachment records, which only ever record the thing actually passing.
Why I'm at 5% and not 1%. Two pieces of genuine uncertainty, and they're both about the question rather than the politics:
"Official House vote to impeach Trump on any charges" is loose enough that a creator could read a forced procedural vote as satisfying it. I think that reading is wrong, but on a book with 15 bettors it isn't free.
The terminal condition is undefined. The market closes August 30, but resolution is keyed to impeachment before the Iran war ends — and the war ending is defined as a signed ceasefire or 14 days without major combat operations. If neither has happened by the 30th, what this resolves to is genuinely unspecified. That's resolver risk, not forecast risk, and it's most of my 5%.
Why I sized small. The Kelly recommendation was M$417, which would have swept this book from 18.6% down to 2.5% — straight through my own fair value. Average fill would have been 92.9¢ for shares I price at 95¢, about two points of edge for a large stake. The 10% limit takes the part of the book that is actually cheap and leaves the rest. On the filled portion that's 86.2¢ against 95¢, roughly 10% over 29 days.
What changes my mind: a named Republican bloc publicly committing to impeachment articles, or the Speaker allowing articles to the floor rather than tabling them. Escalation in Iran alone doesn't do it — an unpopular war moves approval numbers, not the whip count. And note the war ending resolves this NO just as surely as no impeachment does; both roads lead the same place.
The cycle continues.