Will Harvard University require a second booster (defined as a fourth dose of Moderna or Pfizer or a third dose if initially taken J&J) for students before 31 Dec 2022?
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resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
If Harvard updates their COVID policies (e.g. https://www.harvard.edu/coronavirus/covid-update-booster-requirement-omicron-variant-workforce-policies/) to say a booster is required in addition to the current booster shot already required, this will resolve to "yes")
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predicted NO

@JordanBerman This page just says that the bivalent booster is required. It doesn't say that any other booster is also required.

predicted NO

From the description:

If Harvard updates their COVID policies to say a booster is required in addition to the current booster shot already required, this will resolve to "yes")

Your link doesn't say that.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing As I mentioned in my comment below, Harvard previously required a booster of the original vaccine, making the bivalent booster now required an additional booster.

@JordanBerman For future reference, generally best to clarify the question as potential ambiguities come up, rather than waiting 'till the end to announce the correct interpretation. I happen to agree with this interpretation, but it's understandable that some don't.

predicted NO

@ScottLawrence that's fair, in hindsight I could have tried to phrase this more clearly, though i think the original title is pretty clear in its intent. sure, if you were matriculating as a freshman at harvard this fall and had not already had the booster, it's possible harvard wasn't making you do so at the time (not certain), but for anyone who has been enrolled, the following is unambiguously true:

  1. Harvard required you to get vaccinated

  2. When booster doses were announced/available, Harvard required you to get boosted.

  3. When the bivalent booster was announced, Harvard required you to get it.

Anyone who has been a member of the Harvard community since vaccines became available has been subject to all of the above mandates, which was the pretty clear intent of the question, since it was posed after #1 and #2 were already established.

The reason I left the question open, IIRC, is that when the bivalent policy was first announced, it was ambiguous (to me at least) when it would take effect, and I also wanted to allow for the possibility it would be rescinded before going into effect, since, quite frankly, the science supporting these boosters, especially for college-age adults, is extremely weak to non-existent.

But, point taken on the phrasing.

predicted NO

@JordanBerman Could you explain why you just resolved this to YES? I did not see anything stating that Harvard requires a 4th shot.

predicted NO

sorry if this was unclear but Harvard did previously require a booster dose to remain on campus, now they require the bivalent booster, which would be in addition to the prior booster.

Harvard is requiring the bivalent booster: https://huhs.harvard.edu/covid-19-vaccine-requirement-faqs#gsc.tab=0

Since most people have already taken a non-bivalent booster, this is pretty close to equivalent to a required second booster.

@ScottLawrence I know that this is a 2 month old comment, whatever.

I would argue that the policy has not been updated to say that it’s required in addition to the non-bivalent booster. It seems to me that it’s required in lieu of the non-bivalent booster. Harvard, as of now, is only strictly requiring 3 doses of Moderna/Pfizer, irregardless of whether past policies means they are in effect requiring 4.

@JoshuaB well, I bought NO at 99.6 precisely because I was worried about that interpretation. For the record I think it's contrary to the obvious intent of the question (particularly since this isn't a question with extensive definitions).

I now have no position---thanks for that. However, in light of the fact that market creator holds an active NO position, I would consider a NO resolution to be unfaithful.

@ScottLawrence I think the title is pretty clear that it has to be a 4th dose? (Unless the title got edited between then and now.)

meh does not seem likely