I'll randomly sample an original post from AISafetyMemes on twitter that was released in 2024 and is still up and go into detail about the each of the claims made.

If the tweet makes no verifiable claims of interest, then I'll resample.
Then I'll resolve this market to "yes" if I find no substantial falsehood.

This might become vibes-based, but I will default to the literal interpretation of the words and I won't be eager to mark predictions as false if AISafetyMemes flagged those as a predictions or speculation.

Not only is the point of this market to evaluate AISafetyMemes, but also to evaluate our community (or the part that visits manifold) on whether they unfairly state that AISafetyMemes is "right" or "wrong".

And, be encouraged to duplicate my market, but with you, or some poll, as the judge, so any conversation about the account can become better guided.

Reminder that I will only sample a single tweet and the resolution has zero say about the unsampled tweets. Most of the interestingness here is to be gained from the number the traders come up with before resolution.

• Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only original tweets will be sampled; replies are excluded except when adding context to the original tweet.

  • Sample size considerations: While a larger sample size (e.g., 5 or 10 tweets) is acknowledged as beneficial for engagement, the current market will not change the resolution criteria mid-market. Future markets may adopt a larger sample size.

• Update 2025-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

  • Literal Evaluation: Claims will be assessed very literally. For example, if AISafetyMemes says "guy said x" when in fact the tweet merely implied x, that will count as a false claim.

  • Verification Challenges: If verifying individual claims becomes too burdensome, the market may be resolved as N/A.

  • Resolution Postponement: Resolution is postponed to allow a thorough review of the individual claims.