Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
resolved Jun 17

The test on 6/10 was negative. I'll take another test on 6/17. With non-expired test kit this time.

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I just took another test, following every word of the instructions, and it was negative.

The symptoms are so mild overall that I've still been running a couple of miles every day with my dog. The main thing is not being able to breathe through my nose at night unless I take Sudafed.

I have several theories to explain the data:
1. Maybe I got three false negatives in a row (25% probability)
2. Maybe my wife's two positive tests were false positives (35% probability) (they were both taken immediately after flying on a plane. Virus particles could have gotten into her nose without actually infecting her, and she could have been sick with something else coincidentally)
3. Maybe I am so immune to covid that making out every day with an active covid case for the entire duration doesn't infect me (30% probability)
4. Some other edge case not covered by this disjunction (e.g., maybe I got it first and gave it to her but I was asymptomatic, and I coincidentally got sick with something else later) (10% probability)

@JonathanRay My understanding about antigen tests is that falsely negative results are significantly more likely than false positives -- it's far more plausible for you to have three "false" negatives in a row (i.e. a viral load below the detection threshold) than for your wife to have had two false positives.

If you're really curious, the PCR tests have considerably higher sensitivity (at least when the sample is collected properly). I think antigen tests are likely a better proxy of contagiousness-to-others, though, in addition to being more affordable and convenient.

All that said, my guess is that your nasal congestion is unrelated to covid and that you have an unusually strong immunity to covid.

Glad you're healthy!

I'm curious why @nikki and others were so confident that this would resolve 'No'. (It seems like many of you attended Manifest -- Did @JonathanRay give a talk about his exceptional immune system?)

Next time, attend Manifest, specifically the talks on adverse selection. Thanks for kindly being my counterparty!

Anyways, I had a good idea of which test he was going to take

I used the Abbot antigen test kit and got a negative at manifest before creating this market, then I used an expired iHealth antigen test kit at home, then I used a new iHealth antigen test kit.

I should note that I am particularly predisposed to nasal congestion so people shouldn’t update too hard on that symptom. I’ve often taken flonase when I have no allergies and no virus just to reduce inflammation in the turbinates so I can breathe better at night.

Current symptom status is much better than last night, but that’s probably just because I took the Sudafed early enough for it to kick in by bedtime.. (Currently only taking Sudafed and Loratadine)

My wife says she will supervise the final test to make sure I do it right and don’t get a false negative.

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Maybe I had latent covid since 6/9ish but staying out all night on 6/13 finally weakened my immune system enough to make it symptomatic. Maybe my fluticasone inhaler is masking almost all the lung symptoms.

Paxlovid was tremendously helpful for me. If this is indeed covid, it may be worth considering whether Paxlovid is appropriate for you. Know that it’s more effective when started earlier in the illness.

If you do start it, be prepared for a lingering negative taste in your mouth after each dose. I found hard candies helped with that.

Current symptoms: nasal congestion so bad that it required many interventions to be able to breathe through my nose at night (Sudafed+ibuprofen+saline+hotshower+flonase+elevation+ a bit of doxylamine just in case). Moderately bad sore throat. slightly elevated temperate <0.5c. Slight worsening of asthma.

Well done to those who didn’t overreact to the negative test yesterday because the false

Negative rate is high and I wouldn’t have taken the test unless I suspected.

I took another test today and it was negative. Will test again on 6/17.

My wife is much improved but still has a lot of cough and a 1C higher than normal temperature

Today I've got a mildly sore throat and a slight headache but no fever. It started after the strip club so it's probably unrelated to my wife's covid.

Update: back to having no symptoms at all

Last night I was partying at a strip club with my wife’s friend who owns it so I only slept from like 4:30 to 8:30 and now I have some very slight nasal congestion and a hint of runniness

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Dude. You think you might have Covid but you are potentially exposing people anyway?

The friend was only in town for 2 days… Multiply the low probability I have it by the very low transmission probability from never coughing and the decreased severity because everyone is vaccinated and already had it —- yeah seems fine in expected value to go to public places so long as I’m not shouting in anyone’s face or making out with anyone other than my wife

My wife had two positive covid tests on Monday, and today her symptoms are improving but she's still moderately ill. I feel normal.

Still almost no symptoms.

Have you had covid in the past? How recently?

it's unclear if I ever had it. There were two times I suspected I had it based on symptoms in 2020 and 2021, but I never got tested. I just stayed home alone.

I sneezed thrice this evening, and I had a very slight runny nose for a minute, but as of bedtime I am back to the same as the beginning of the day

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As usual I will avoid any insider trading. I'm still totally asymptomatic except for a barely noticeable nasal congestion and a barely noticeable worsening of my asthma.

@JonathanRay would you be willing to estimate the chances that you'd get what feels like a barely noticeable nasal congestion / worsening of asthma, if you weren't actually sick? does it happen frequently or very rarely, could it be placebo-like, etc.

@Bayesian I would guess that this level of symptoms is 2x more likely when there's a virus than when there's not a virus.

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@JonathanRay thanks!

@JonathanRay Have you and your wife been taking any precautions to reduce exposure? Have you been sharing the same bed and generally living together unmasked?

@snazzlePop No. Yes. We kiss many times every day.

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@JonathanRay Glad to hear you have an affectionate relationship. Despite the large position I'm taking, I wish you good health.