Will I accumulate 420k YES shares on this market?
resolved Apr 20

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Well I hit the 420k threshold and I owe Joshua a drink

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 99.0% order

Only 5k left

About 7 hours left and I just need someone to fill my last 40k of limit orders

@JonathanRay Whoever’s trade pushes me over the threshold I will buy them a drink at manifest

bought Ṁ60 NO


@Joshua Is this the real-money trading we've been hearing about?

The current holding is 378,268. The order book contains another 41,078 totalling 419,364 😧

Our friend is ~80k away from his objective. He has ~35k in cash and will get another ~40k loan tomorrow morning. To be clear, he can easily get this to a YES if folks buy just another 800 mana worth of NO.
Good luck to all, I'm sure whatever happens will be hilarious to at least some of us.

@IsaacCarruthers According to this market, he has a 99% chance of succeeding

@AnilJason so you're saying there's a chance?

on whalebaits, the market price doesn't need to reflect the market probability. it can be the case that the true prob is 15%, but if it ever got that low it would make the market resolve YES, so it never does, etc.

@Bayesian Forgot to include the /s on my post. W/ the old loan system every market was becoming a whalebaits market, so I'm cherishing this ^-^

@AnilJason I don't see how the old loan system made every market a whalebait market

@Bayesian I don't have aggregate data, but from what I've picked up using this app casually, a lot of the long-term markets were being distorted by whales. You can boost your net worth by strong-arming uncontested low-mid volume markets that won't resolve anytime soon, take loans on your phantom gains, and keep rolling. Since you can use your net-worth as a source of cash flow, this accelerates the gini coefficient of manifold, and makes markets increasingly a reflection on set of whale's leveraged positions than any new information about the actual topic in question being revealed.

@AnilJason your loans aren't increased off of your fantom gains. Your fantom gains literally only increase your paper profits, but since you bring the market to a price most ppl don't agree with, you can't ever escape your position, and eventually the market beats you and you lose a lot. is this wrong? You cant have greater leverage % when you have a greater networth afaik. I think whales having a bigger pie of the mana would help rather than hinder average market accuracy

@Bayesian Ah, so if your bets loose value, your loan amount does, but not the reverse? It is hard for me to tell when all my bets only lose value.

@AnilJason I think the market distortion issue is only a problem around when leagues are ending each month and people are trying to manipulate the system to increase their ranking.

In the long run, if a whale tried to push a market in a particular direction that didn't match the evidence, other whales would notice and be more than happy to take their mana by pushing it back.

historical evidence: ammon lam vs Joshua, battle of the bitcoin and of jon tester, season 11 of the year of our lord 2024

Jonathan, they just banned long-time, respected users FUH and BTE for multi-account schenanigans. Getting a proxy to put up 99% orders isn't worth the risk.
Don't do this to yourself.
You have a Pivot to participate in.

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 99.0% order

@MichaelWheatley If my wife joined and bought some NO at 1% to help me out that’d be perfectly legal

@JonathanRay That's even more dangerous. She'll have the same IP address, maybe even the same device ID. It will be like FUH's misbehaving roommate all over again. I think the safest thing to do is cut your losses now before you get in too deep.

@Jacy you're killing us, man

@Jacy by royal decree I hereby BAN 'NO' limit orders at 99%

i hereby ban all limit orders everywhere