When will bitcoin have a 50% drawdown?
5
225Ṁ260
2050
69%
2026-2029
66%
2030s
46%
2040s
32%
2025
Resolved
N/A
2024

A 50% drawdown during a time interval means the minimum price during the interval is less than or equal to half the maximum price during the interval. Data source is google. Each interval resolves independently.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified an additional condition for a 50% drawdown: the minimum price must occur after the maximum price within the interval. This is in addition to the requirement that the minimum price is less than or equal to half the maximum price.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A 50% drawdown is defined by the following condition:

    • There must exist two points in time, T1 and T2, within the same resolution interval, such that:

    • T2 occurs after T1 (T2 > T1).

    • The bitcoin price at T2 is half or less than the bitcoin price at T1 (i.e., Price(T2) ≤ 0.5 * Price(T1)).

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that resolution intervals that concluded before a significant clarification of the market's resolution criteria may be resolved to N/A.

    • As an example, the 2024 interval will be resolved to N/A because the definition of a 50% drawdown was clarified after the 2024 period.

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The max drawdown in 2024 was 30% (70k to 49k) but the definition was clarified after 2024 so I'll resolve 2024 to N/A.

@JonathanRay 2024 Resolves Yes
According to coingecko (I know diffrent then the source you use):
Minumum Price in 2024: $39505 on January 22nd 2024
Maximum Price in 2024 $106074 on December 16th 2024

This is assuming we go by your definition of drawdown
"A 50% drawdown during a time interval means the minimum price during the interval is less than or equal to half the maximum price during the interval"
Your definition says that we only compare minimum and maximum price nothing about the order, if I use your definiton of drawdown price going up 100% in an interval means the drawdown is >50% becouse the minumum price at the start of the interval is less then half of the price at the end of the interval.

@winged_one Drawdown also implies the minimum occurs after the maximum.

To try to define the commonsense definition of 50% drawdown with some mathmatical rigor:

There exist T1 and T2 during the same interval, with T2 > T1 and the bitcoin price at T2 is half or less the bitcoin price at T1.

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