When will bitcoin have a 50% drawdown?
5
225Ṁ260
2050
69%
2026-2029
66%
2030s
46%
2040s
32%
2025
Resolved
N/A
2024

A 50% drawdown during a time interval means the minimum price during the interval is less than or equal to half the maximum price during the interval. Data source is google. Each interval resolves independently.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified an additional condition for a 50% drawdown: the minimum price must occur after the maximum price within the interval. This is in addition to the requirement that the minimum price is less than or equal to half the maximum price.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A 50% drawdown is defined by the following condition:

    • There must exist two points in time, T1 and T2, within the same resolution interval, such that:

    • T2 occurs after T1 (T2 > T1).

    • The bitcoin price at T2 is half or less than the bitcoin price at T1 (i.e., Price(T2) ≤ 0.5 * Price(T1)).

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that resolution intervals that concluded before a significant clarification of the market's resolution criteria may be resolved to N/A.

    • As an example, the 2024 interval will be resolved to N/A because the definition of a 50% drawdown was clarified after the 2024 period.

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