What will happen to the UK before 2050?
Basic
24
Ṁ2077
2050
96%
Coronation of King William
96%
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
76%
Rejoining the European Customs Union
70%
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
62%
A year with inflation >10%
52%
a year where population declines by 1%
50%
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
50%
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
48%
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
48%
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
43%
Republic
42%
Winning the FIFA world cup
41%
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
34%
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
29%
rejoining the European Union
26%
joining the Euro
25%
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
22%
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
20%
Two new monarchs after Charles III
13%
Has an NFL franchise

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Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)

@BrunoParga what does this mean exactly?

Currently, apart from the UK proper, there are other lands under the British Crown: British Overseas Territories like Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands, and the Crown Dependencies (IIRC those three are the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey). Formally, the King of the UK exercises sovereignty over these areas, although in practice it is the British government that makes decisions that are not left to local governance (e.g. about defense and foreign relations).

Notice this is different from King Charles also being the King of Canada or the King of Australia, those are Commonwealth Realms with their own sovereignty, unrelated to the question.

The option resolves as true if, from the point of view of UK law, any territory or Crown Dependency ceases to be under UK sovereignty.

The last time this happened was the transfer of Hong Kong to China in 1997. The last territory to become independent was Saint Kitts and Nevis in 1983.

So independence of, I don't know, Bermuda or the Cayman Islands, or transfers of sovereignty to a third country (Gibraltar to Spain, Akrotiri and Dhekelia to Cyprus, the Indian Ocean territory to Mauritius, or something else) would resolve this as Yes.

A Crown Dependency becoming a territory or vice versa would not resolve this as Yes; neither would any of them becoming part of the UK proper, as these situations would still have British sovereignty. Occupation like the Falklands by the Argies in 1982 wouldn't resolve it either, as we're talking about what's legal here. If Northern Ireland joins the Republic that's also not enough because NI is not a territory, it's a part of the UK proper.

Republic

How much getting rid of the monarchy does this require? Could they still be around doing ceremonial things, but without needing to rubberstamp their assent to laws? Could they have no formal legal status in the government but still be rich/famous and living in buckingham palace? Do they have to be murdered like the romanovs?

@JonathanRay "Republic" means "no monarchy"

The means don't matter to this option

But IIRC, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled that they cannot be arbitrarily deprived of their personal property; I don't know which properties they own personally and which are owned by the Crown

bought Ṁ50 Answer #dae75b17e1ff YES

How strict is "contemporaneous" here? Does the PM need to explicitly say they're a socialist while in office, or is it sufficient for them to describe as a socialist during the campaign and then win?

@Fion Any time during the campaign or the term in office counts.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #dae75b17e1ff YES

What if it's a woman?

@lisamarsh that still counts, I just use the masculine pronoun for convenience

Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty

Minor border adjustments do not count.

Winning the FIFA world cup

This is pretty impossible to happen to the UK, which is not a FIFA member. Does England winning count?

@BrunoParga What about Scotland/Wales/NI? And is this just men's football?

@lisamarsh Only men's football. If any of the UK members (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) wins, that counts. If it exits the UK before winning, that doesn't count.

I assume "democratic socialist" counts?

@Fion Yes

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