What percentage of Trump’s charges in indictments unsealed in 2023 will result in a conviction by 2030?
7
350Ṁ10312030
48%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
All jurisdictions within the US only.
Pardons are irrelevant. Pleading guilty to the original charge counts as a conviction. Pleading guilty to a lesser charge doesn't count. Anything overturned on appeal doesn't count. Appeals that are still pending in 2030 will delay resolution. If trump's death moots the appeal process then the conviction stands.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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