Conditional on DeSantis winning the nomination, will he be accused of sexual assault before the 2024 Election?
Nov 5

Conditional version of

Resolves the same as that market if DeSantis wins the GOP presidential nomination. Resolves N/A if DeSantis doesn't win the GOP presidential nomination.

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predicts YES

My interpretation of the large difference between the conditional and unconditional markets is that post-nomination political motivations will bring untrustworthy accusers out of the woodwork. Surely being Florida governor would be enough motivation to accuse if the accusations were legit.

Does the order of events matter?

@EMcNeill no, but I could create finer conditional markets that depend on the order of events if people want that