Conditional on being elected president, will Ron DeSantis be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
3
90Ṁ111
2030
18%
chance

N/A if DeSantis is not elected. Otherwise resolves the same as the unconditional version:


Probably the conditional is significantly higher because it increases the motivation of DAs who have a lot of discretion.

️ Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules