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Some interesting reads, particularly the one about prediction tournaments which was a good articulation of an intuition I have felt and seen play out.
Depending on the value of the tournament, the temporary tournament benefit might be able to balance with other long-term impact. If you risk it all for a prediction tournament here on manifold, you're nuking your chances in Leagues, losing mana long-term, etc. if it doesn't work out.
I'd be interested in seeing a deeper exploration into how diverse a tournament would need to be to effectively reduce/eliminate the issue. Ideally, direct examples/analysis of past prediction tournaments on manifold, and if this issue was still present (my assumption is yes) in an environment where people are bringing resources earned before the tournament and risking them as a part of it.
you mention in that post, "If they aren’t designed carefully, forecasting tournaments can favor biased forecasters."
I'd be interested in knowing more about the "carefully design" part, and methods to protect from this, such as including non-correlated outcomes like you suggested.
If anything already exists about the best way to run prediction tournaments, I'd be interested in reading it!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?