I'm not betting in this market due to potential conflicts, but seems like a pretty safe bet

see also https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/will-abstractionsubstackcom-have-at-38c9d4ac9374

Will abstraction.substack.com have at least 100 subscribers on November 30th, 2023?

61% chance. The blog currently has 87 subscribers. This question will resolve as YES if on December 1st or after, the substack subscribers chart for the blog shows at least 100 subscribers for November 30th, 2023. Here is a chart of the 90 day history as of the time of posting: [image]I will not trade in this market, but may provide updates in the comments.

Some interesting reads, particularly the one about prediction tournaments which was a good articulation of an intuition I have felt and seen play out.

Depending on the value of the tournament, the temporary tournament benefit might be able to balance with other long-term impact. If you risk it all for a prediction tournament here on manifold, you're nuking your chances in Leagues, losing mana long-term, etc. if it doesn't work out.

I'd be interested in seeing a deeper exploration into how diverse a tournament would need to be to effectively reduce/eliminate the issue. Ideally, direct examples/analysis of past prediction tournaments on manifold, and if this issue was still present (my assumption is yes) in an environment where people are bringing resources earned before the tournament and risking them as a part of it.

you mention in that post, "If they aren’t designed carefully, forecasting tournaments can favor biased forecasters."

I'd be interested in knowing more about the "carefully design" part, and methods to protect from this, such as including non-correlated outcomes like you suggested.

If anything already exists about the best way to run prediction tournaments, I'd be interested in reading it!