Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the day of the first qualifying direct military attack launched by Iran on the territory of Israel during the week of July 20 to July 26, 2026, measured in Israel Daylight Time (IDT, UTC+3).

A qualifying "attack" is defined as an offensive military strike (such as ballistic/cruise missiles or suicide drones) launched directly from Iranian territory at Israel, or an attack officially claimed by Iranian state forces (such as the IRGC) targeting Israel. Attacks conducted solely by regional proxies (such as Hezbollah or the Houthis) do not qualify unless officially claimed as a direct state-level action by Iran.

The outcomes will resolve as follows:

• Friday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Friday, July 24, 2026 (IDT).

• Saturday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Saturday, July 25, 2026 (IDT).

• Later than Saturday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Sunday, July 26, 2026 (IDT).

• Iran will not attack this week: No qualifying attack occurs between Friday, July 24, 2026, and Sunday, July 26, 2026, at 11:59 PM IDT. (Any attack occurring on Monday, July 27, 2026, or later will result in this option resolving to Yes).

Credible international and local news agencies, such as The Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, and Reuters, will be used to verify the occurrence and timing of any attacks.

Background

Tensions in the region escalated significantly in July 2026 following the resumption of hostilities and U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets. On July 23, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Iran would suffer a "crushing blow" if it initiated an attack. This threat was countered by reports from Iranian officials stating they would strike Tel Aviv if current military actions persist. This market tracks whether Iran launches a direct strike on Israel during the final days of the week.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the option representing the day of the first qualifying direct military attack launched by Iran on the territory of Israel in late July 2026. All times are measured in Israel Daylight Time (IDT, UTC+3).

A qualifying attack is defined as an offensive military strike (including ballistic/cruise missiles or suicide drones) launched directly from Iranian territory at Israel, or an attack officially claimed by Iranian state forces (such as the IRGC) targeting Israeli territory. Attacks conducted solely by regional proxies (such as Hezbollah or the Houthis) do not qualify unless officially claimed as a direct state-level action by Iran.

The options will resolve as follows:

• Friday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Friday, July 24, 2026 (IDT).

• Saturday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Saturday, July 25, 2026 (IDT).

• Sunday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Sunday, July 26, 2026 (IDT).

• Later than Saturday: The first qualifying attack occurs on Monday, July 27, 2026, through Friday, July 31, 2026 (IDT). (If the attack occurs on Sunday, July 26, the "Sunday" option will resolve YES and this option will resolve NO to maintain mutual exclusivity).

• Iran will not attack in the month of July: No qualifying attack occurs between Friday, July 24, 2026, and Friday, July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM IDT.

Verification of any attacks and their precise timing will be based on reports from credible international and local news agencies, including The Times of Israel, The Jerusalem Post, and Reuters.

Background

Regional tensions escalated significantly in July 2026 amid a broader conflict involving the United States and Iran. Following a series of U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets and a rejected ceasefire proposal, Israeli officials raised military readiness over concerns of a potential weekend escalation. On July 23, 2026, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Iran would suffer a "crushing blow" if it initiated an attack, following reports that Iranian officials threatened to strike Tel Aviv if current military actions persist. This market tracks the timing of a potential direct Iranian offensive against Israel.