Background

The Syrian government's control over territory connecting Damascus to Latakia is currently contested. In late 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied rebel groups launched a major offensive, capturing Aleppo and several strategic areas. While Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes, have launched counteroffensives, the situation remains volatile.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Syrian government maintains uninterrupted control over a contiguous land route between Damascus and Latakia from market creation until March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The market will resolve NO if at any point during this period:

• Rebel forces capture and hold territory that breaks the contiguous connection between Damascus and Latakia

• Government forces lose control of key highways or alternative routes necessary for maintaining a contiguous connection

• The territory becomes controlled by any non-government forces

Considerations

• Control will be determined based on reliable news sources, military reports, and conflict mapping organizations

• Temporary disruptions lasting less than 24 hours (such as brief rebel raids or temporary checkpoints) will not affect resolution

• The specific route between the cities may change as long as a contiguous government-controlled connection is maintained