False flag incident against the U.S. framing Latin American gang before October 14?
2
100αΉ€35
Oct 14
35%
chance

This market predicts whether a false flag violent incident against the U S. to frame any Latin American gang, will be publicly reported before October 14, 2025. A 'yes' resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets confirming such an event. Resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as BBC News or The New York Times.

Necessary components:

  1. Attempted or actual violence that is notable enough to be reported on by major news outlets (does not need to be large scale)

  2. Attempt by the perpetrators or their allies to pin blame on a Latin American gang (the attempt does not need to be very sophisticated or believable) despite weak evidence of Latin American gang involvement (<20% likelihood)

  3. Event occurs in the United States or the victims are U.S. citizens

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Does the Aurora, CO stuff count?

@spiderduckpig I think that was real violence by Tren de Aragua? https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2024/12/17/aurora-edge-lowry-apartments-gang-activity

I haven't dug into it much. Do you think the links to the gang are disputed? I totally believe that the level of disorder was exaggerated though

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