Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸
61
342
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2030
23%
chance

Upcoming 60 Minutes report:

“Definitively Debunked” according to Michael Shermer:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havana_syndrome

various U.S. officials blamed the reported symptoms on a variety of unidentified and unknown technologies, including ultrasound, microwave weapons, pesticides, and toxins. All suggested causes were speculative as no undisputed evidence was discovered

RESOLUTION

  • “real” in the sense that it’s an attack caused by a foreign adversary (e.g. via directed energy weapons) and not just psychosomatic

  • To resolve Yes, before 2030, there will need to be strong evidence of this (there currently is none from my understanding ). I’m open to suggestions on what exactly should constitute “strong evidence” but currently thinking statements from intelligence agencies & reports from high-quality sources

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I haven't read a single word about Havana Syndrome, so my NO position is based almost completely on pattern recognition that these sort of "mysterious" incidents nearly always turn out to be bullshit or mass psychosis. Oh, and I am an occasional hypochondriac myself (to the point of even having panic attacks) so I know exactly how psychological states can lead to subjectively "real" physical symptoms; it's really quite fascinating.

How about this? There is no "Havanna Syndrome" attack but there is a "Meta-Havanna Syndrome" Attack Syndrome.

"They" aren't zapping the brains of diplomats and intelligence agents with ultra-high frequency chronomorphic freak-out rays. But double (and triple) agents are spreading stories about ultra-high frequency chronomorphic freak-out rays to induce an epidemic of semi-subliminal socially contagious psychosomatic freak-outs.

How would the market resolve under those conditions?

@JakeDee

Would resolve as no in that case as it's still psychosomatic


Interesting theory though!

bought Ṁ10 NO

🎶Havana, ooh na-na

Half of my brain is in Havana, ooh na-na

The Russians got me with their jammer, na-na-na

Mmm, now my skull is in a scanner

And I have gone bananas

Havana, ooh-na-na

https://theins.press/en/politics/270425

Unraveling Havana Syndrome: New evidence links the GRU's assassination Unit 29155 to mysterious attacks on U.S. officials and their families


A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anomalous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Russian GRU Unit 29155. Members of the Kremlin’s infamous military intelligence sabotage squad have been placed at the scene of suspected attacks on overseas U.S. government personnel and their family members, leading victims to question what Washington knows about the origins of Havana Syndrome, and what an appropriate Western response might entail.

Two new studies find that there's no evidence of Havana Syndrome.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/18/havana-syndrome-study-government-officials

bought Ṁ250 NO

@uair01 yup. Anyone remember the Iraninan schoolgirl "poisonings" from last year? Same sort of bullshit; gets clicks though, I guess.

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 52% order

The “attacks” have happened in too many locations around the world for this to be a foreign adversary acting maliciously (imo).

Five Eyes always seems to hear chatter before attacks (we warned Russia about their terrorist attack, we warned Ukraine about their invasion…etc.). I don’t think there’s any foreign power on earth that could coordinate such wide attacks without some detection (either from our spies, or from evidence of the attacks themselves)

@mattyb

Five Eyes always seems to hear chatter before attacks (we warned Russia about their terrorist attack, we warned Ukraine about their invasion…etc.). I don’t think there’s any foreign power on earth that could coordinate such wide attacks without some detection (either from our spies, or from evidence of the attacks themselves)

Good point, I'm skeptical given the level of coordination required & number of moving parts, especially when many of the alleged attacks were around well-surveilled embassies.

However, there is also historical precedent for intelligence agencies withholding information from the general public or explicitly misleading them because of concerns around national security, hysteria etc.

So there's a non-zero possibility that they could know more than they're letting on.

An interesting tidbit from the NAESM report which concluded that pulsed radiofrequency waves were the “most plausible” explanation

the report was only made available in redacted form, with some pages obscured under medical privacy claims. However, the December NASEM report on the illnesses cites some of the redacted CDC findings, including that 6 of the 15 people injured were still in rehabilitative therapy and 4 are still unable to work two years later.

The CDC declined to comment on the report or explain why it ultimately withheld the findings from the public.

I wonder if any of the debunkings have addressed the redaction of those injured people & how physical injuries of that magnitude square with the notion that HS is just psychosomatic.

  • it also could explain why, assuming the upcoming report is genuine, 60 Minute's sources appear to contradict the current public-facing explanation & consensus on HS

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