@Jason it's up to manifold to police markets like this, myself and others have expressed concerns in the past. Manifold seem generally ok with it. I am sure there are many ways markets could have been made to bully/harass people to expose the flaw (especially markets pertaining to self harm) but I only made one and basically dropped it.

I don't want to be the guy who makes markets so terrible that they get a rule changed, even if the rule is bad.

@Gen I reported the market and e-mailed a rationale, so we'll see if anything happens here.

@Jason

Here are some more of noteworthy concern if you are interested in taking it further. I think none of these are appropriate given the potential incentives and consequences of those markets.

@Gen I agree those shouldn't be permitted, although the invasion-of-privacy rationale I employed doesn't work (quite) as well for some of them (either because the subject is a public figure or created the market).

@Jason Yeah, I think there's a grey area but that line is definitely firmly in the middle of between political assassinations and (mostly) random people committing suicide.

Isaac betting on his own suicide doesn't do any good for anyone, serious or not.

(also, potentially evidence of Manifold causing serious distress to where he would feel the need to do that)

@Gen @Jason We'll think more deeply about this cases and our current policies and take action if appropriate.

@Gen Definitely agree these markets are problematic for a number of reasons (some of which do not apply as strongly, or at all, in every case).

After further reflection, one of the problems is the exposure/discussion of private information, which is triggered to different degrees by various markets. Information about whether someone has an addiction (this market) or suicidal ideation (the D.. market) is more private than whether someone is dead or not. Someone being dead is public information that doesn't break privacy norms per se . . . but a death market could easily lead to discussion or trading patterns that implicate sensitive private information (like medical conditions).

@Jason I think in particular suicide markets are particularly bad because it reads to me like "Do you think this person is fucked in the head or mentally unstable?" Which could be damaging to someone. If it was worded like that it would obviously not be allowed

For example, Darius would probably not enjoy seeing that his suicide odds are at 60%. Same with Mr Girl being a murderer/murdered.

I agree though, whether or not someone dies, not necessarily a huge deal

@Jason I consent to this market, and to any similar future markets people may want to make. (I reserve the right to withdraw that consent at any time.)