Resolves to whichever option has the highest number of unique traders.
I could ask a question about prediction market etiquette...or I could ask the market itself!
This market precludes conditional closings e.g "Closed in a week or when I get an answer that satisfies me.".
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ37 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
my first market is “Will I successfully resolve my first market?” because I had no idea what the UI would be like or if the site would be intuitive. I stated I’d resolve it in a week, but the UI looks pretty straightforward and waiting a few more days won’t change the UI. [citation needed]
This is a trivial and harmless example, but in a market that actually matters might consider closing and resolving a market early as a dick move.
Possible argument for Yes, Always: if the event the market is based on happens, the market should close, even if it’s earlier than the creator stated.
For example, “Will I adopt a bunny this week? Resolves by Friday to whether I have a bunny in my house” and the potential adopter learns he’s deathly allergic to rabbits - would he be within his rights to close the market early?
Possible argument for No, Never: The creator stated the rules of the market, going against them should be discouraged to prevent people feeling like they were bait-and-switched.
The other two options indicate flexibility between the other two positions, possibly by asking the people who’ve already bet if they’re okay with making changes or other compromise options.
If the market is about an easy-to-confirm event, like "will GPT-4 release before 2025", and GPT-4 releases in jun 2023, even if it doesn't explicitly say 'closes at the end of 2024 or whenever gpt-4 releases", early resolutions seem good.
It's probably 'ususally' instead of 'always', some markets probably are easy to get wrong if you resolve them early
General rule is you should resolve a market once the answer is known, and wait when there is still uncertainty about the answer.
If you can be >99% sure of the answer, then I would suggest resolving the market, and then you can ask the admins to re-resolve it to the new answer if there turns out to be an unexpected surprise that changes it - this is a new capability as of about a month ago, before you had to be more careful. You should state this plan clearly so it's understood.
@jack Out of curiosity, how many admins are there and is there a plan to scale re-resolving capabilities if and when the site gains a larger user base? And do let me know if you feel like the Spanish Inquisition is after you with all these questions.
@JohnSmithb9be 5-10 I think? And yes I'd expect them to make it possible to scale in the future, no concrete plans so far but many suggestions.