Will the price of crude oil exceed $100 per barrel at any point in the next 12 months?
Aug 3

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

About $10 away this morning

predicts YES

@Bill $5 away this evening

I know nothing about oil but here we go. Starting point is https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/index.php $84/b average for CY24; a couple of occurrences in the past ~year with +/-$10/b fluctuation about the average. Uncertainties not accounted for include inflation, political stabilization and natural disasters.

U.S. trending to increase market share even under biden who prefers the carrot; saudi arabia expected to remain stable https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/how-stable-saudi-arabia; destabilization in russion may cause increase in global markets; sanctions exist, not sure if it matters https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/06/20/buyers-of-russian-crude-are-exporting-refined-oil-to-the-west; not expecting a may '22 spike in prices unless russia decides to invade ukraine again.

Hurricanes historically disrupt oil supply. CY23 expecting "near-normal" https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook which is a good amount of severe hurricanes?

Global inflation expected to fall https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/01/30/global-economy-to-slow-further-amid-signs-of-resilience-and-china-re-opening good for oil prices.

@J__ The well performing bot @acc disagrees, is that an uh oh?