1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ172 | |
| 2 | Ṁ62 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
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"The next video should be in out, well, less time than it took to make the JKF video"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nx4V9Uh_FW0
The last 5 documentaries were posted with an average gap of ≈237 days, and a median gap of 202 days:
- 123 days
- 143 days
- 234 days
- 202 days
- 481 days
For this market to resolve 'YES', the next documentary gap would have to be <=161 days.
It could be that he chooses to upload a smaller piece after just uploading this giant of a video, but it could also be that he continues upping his game, which he seems to like doing, and makes us wait a long time again. Below is a graph of gaps in days between videos since the release of Cicada 3301: An Internet Mystery.
@JamesColiar Based on those gaps, the probability would be close to 40%, though I guess it's possible that the gap keeps increasing, like you suggested.
@JosephNoonan Yeah, the past isn't that much of an indicator here. A person who has a deep insight into LEMMiNO's creative vision and ambition, would probably be far better at predicting this outcome than someone who bets purely based on gaps between videos in the past.
@JamesColiar Yeah, but do you have deep insight into LEMMiNO's creative vision and ambition?
@JamesColiar Fair enough. Obviously, I have no insight either aside from having watched his videos. I just thought 20% was a little overconfident (though other people betting YES allowed me to sell at a profit already)