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Interesting resolution. Personally I've stopped coding by hand, aside from for entertainment purposes (I enjoy writing code).

Close a in 4 days. Unless something changes in the next 4 days this will resolve to no.

@coproduct @mattyb

Thanks for comments. I think to follow in the spirit of the comments made. This should resolve to YES if
Most = More than 50% of people who write code for a living as of today.
Could = Would be more effective at their jobs if they would completely stop writing code.

Fair?

Plain language is less precise in describing functionality than formal programming languages so it’s generally faster and easier to write some of the lines yourself than to try to explain what you want to someone else or an LLM if you have the technical knowledge.

Since coders already have that skill set, there’s no reason to think they will stop using it even if they are interacting a lot with co-pilot like assistants.

I tried to create a market in the same spirit but with a more objective resolution criterion: https://manifold.markets/coproduct/will-50-or-more-of-aws-developers-s

This is really not a great prediction. It's pretty much a textbook case of using vague words to be able to wriggle out of being wrong in the future

I think to make this a good fit for Manifold, we'd need objective definitions for "most" and "could" that could make objective resolution criteria.

define “most” and what does “could” mean here?