Will I weigh <80kg at any point before September 1st?
8
25
103
resolved Jul 17
Resolved
YES
Resolves yes if I get >=1 weight measurement of <80kg prior to or on August 31st 2022. Some history. In the months January to June this year I have averaged: 80.43 (Jan), 80.47, 80.53, 80.62, 81.51, 82.02 (June). In those same months I have weighed in at <80kg on the following number of days: 6, 6, 5, 1, 1, 0. Happy to share more information on request!
Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ78
2Ṁ42
3Ṁ4
4Ṁ3
5Ṁ0
Sort by:
sold Ṁ61 of NO
79.8!
bought Ṁ20 of NO
82.2 yesterday
predicted YES
Are you doing anything to try to lose weight, or is this more about how much your weight will naturally fluctuate?
predicted NO
@theincredibleholk i track my calories and exercise lots: https://joel-becker.shinyapps.io/life-dashboard/ i would like to bring weight down over this period, but it's not at all my most important personal priority.
predicted YES
@JoelBecker Awesome, thanks! I saw this comment on your weight tracking page: "It is odd that my steep Christmas binge without exercise leads to minimal weight gain." Have you seen any of the overfeeding studies they've done? Apparently it's surprisingly hard to gain weight by eating a lot. From https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/11/a-chemical-hunger-part-ii-current-theories-of-obesity-are-inadequate/: "Studies of controlled overfeeding — you take a group of people and get them to eat way more than they normally would — reliably find two things. First, a person at a healthy weight has to eat huge amounts of calories to gain even a couple pounds. Second, after the overfeeding stops, people go right back to the weight they were before the experiment."
predicted YES
@JoelBecker From checking your dashboard, it seems like your weight was below 176lbs for much of June. Should this resolve YES?
predicted NO
@JonathanNankivell excellent spot! but the data is wrong; it looks like the scale miscaptured someone else’s measurement. more evidence: the weight was taken at a time when i never check my weight (2:30pm, not 6-11am). (people are heavier later in the day, which adds confidence that it’s not just me weighing later.) happy to share photo evidence on twitter or whatever
sold Ṁ29 of NO
80.7kg measurement!
sold Ṁ34 of NO
weight surprisingly low (82kg) upon return from US
bought Ṁ25 of NO
Small challenge for you 😝
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Vote of confidence!