Will I earn a UK drivers license in 2023?
resolved Dec 6

Resolves yes if I earn a UK drivers license in 2023 and no otherwise.

Relevant info:

  • I have a driving test booked in London for December 5th 2023.

  • I might leave the UK beforehand (in which case I am unlikely to come back in 2023).

    • You should probably think of this market as `P(don't leave for US before December 5th) * P(pass driving test | don't leave for US before December 5th)`.

  • I very narrowly failed my only driving test so far, in June 2018.

  • I have had some practice since 2018, but almost none in the past year.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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predicted YES

mission accomplished

bought Ṁ15 of NO

Currently being in the UK on December 5th is ~50%, and I guess (without checking base rates) I have ~80% conditional chance of passing.