Will I earn a UK drivers license in 2023?
Mini
6
Ṁ10kresolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES1D
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1M
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Resolves yes if I earn a UK drivers license in 2023 and no otherwise.
Relevant info:
I have a driving test booked in London for December 5th 2023.
I might leave the UK beforehand (in which case I am unlikely to come back in 2023).
You should probably think of this market as `P(don't leave for US before December 5th) * P(pass driving test | don't leave for US before December 5th)`.
I very narrowly failed my only driving test so far, in June 2018.
I have had some practice since 2018, but almost none in the past year.
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Currently being in the UK on December 5th is ~50%, and I guess (without checking base rates) I have ~80% conditional chance of passing.
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