Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
Will any city in the UK have a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2026?
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36%
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Resolves YES if any city in the UK has a self-driving taxi service generally available to the public. This includes via a waitlist, if the waitlist is open to the public.
This service only needs to cover part of the city; Waymo's service area in LA would be sufficient to resolve YES, if LA was in the UK.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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