When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper?
2
210Ṁ1856resolved Dec 9
Resolved
NONot by June 30th, 2025
Resolved
YES<= March 31st, 2025
Resolved
YES<= June 30th, 2025
Resolved
NO<= September 30th, 2024
Resolved
NO<= June 30th, 2024
Resolved
YES<= December 31st, 2024
At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements
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