When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper?
Basic
2
Ṁ5022025
1%
<= June 30th, 2024
27%
<= September 30th, 2024
66%
<= December 31st, 2024
72%
<= March 31st, 2025
75%
<= June 30th, 2025
40%
Not by June 30th, 2025
At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements
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@JoelBecker So, you feel like it's not good enough? What's your timeline on improving it? Do plan on publishing in a peer-reviewed venue?
@AlexbGoode currently there is no draft, let alone one that is good enough or not. timeline on improving depends on grant decision (in talks with 2 grantmaking organizations); in general the urgency of changes in AI makes me want to rush. i (clearly) think the chance this particular project never happens is significant.
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