When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper?
Mini
2
358
2025
1.9%
<= June 30th, 2024
32%
<= September 30th, 2024
56%
<= December 31st, 2024
62%
<= March 31st, 2025
67%
<= June 30th, 2025
33%
Not by June 30th, 2025

At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements

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You realize you can just upload papers to arXiv? What is stopping you from uploading the 'leading contender'?

@AlexbGoode reputation?

@JoelBecker So, you feel like it's not good enough? What's your timeline on improving it? Do plan on publishing in a peer-reviewed venue?

@AlexbGoode currently there is no draft, let alone one that is good enough or not. timeline on improving depends on grant decision (in talks with 2 grantmaking organizations); in general the urgency of changes in AI makes me want to rush. i (clearly) think the chance this particular project never happens is significant.

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