When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper?
2
35
Ṁ186Ṁ210
2025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
14%
<= June 30th, 2024
45%
<= September 30th, 2024
68%
<= December 31st, 2024
73%
<= March 31st, 2025
77%
<= June 30th, 2025
34%
Not by June 30th, 2025
At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
59% chance
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
53% chance
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
48% chance
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Will I get a first paper author in a top ML conference in 2024?
56% chance
Will I submit a first author (or cofirst author) conference paper to ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML in 2024?
71% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
32% chance
Will any paper published in 2024 be agreeing to the Every Author as First Author proposal by Demaine?
27% chance
Will I have >=1 papers accepted for publication at a journal with >=100 H-index before EOY 2024?
29% chance