When will I first appear as an author on an arXiv paper?
2
210Ṁ1856resolved Dec 9
Resolved
NONot by June 30th, 2025
Resolved
YES<= March 31st, 2025
Resolved
YES<= June 30th, 2025
Resolved
NO<= September 30th, 2024
Resolved
NO<= June 30th, 2024
Resolved
YES<= December 31st, 2024
At time of creating the market, the leading contender for this happening: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFrxFZxGTosKhSq8u/forecasting-future-gains-due-to-post-training-enhancements
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ129 | |
| 2 | Ṁ14 |
People are also trading
Sort by:
@JoelBecker So, you feel like it's not good enough? What's your timeline on improving it? Do plan on publishing in a peer-reviewed venue?
@AlexbGoode currently there is no draft, let alone one that is good enough or not. timeline on improving depends on grant decision (in talks with 2 grantmaking organizations); in general the urgency of changes in AI makes me want to rush. i (clearly) think the chance this particular project never happens is significant.