Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the first credible video footage of Mojtaba Khamenei alive is published after April 1st and before May 1, 2026. The video must be from a credible news source or official Iranian state media and show him alive and identifiable. Deepfakes, AI-generated content, or unverified social media videos do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by checking major news outlets including Reuters, AP News, BBC, Al Jazeera, and official Iranian state media (IRIB, Fars News Agency).

It will resolve NO automatically if we learn he has died before April 1st, 2026, or if my prior market (https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-shown-aliv?r=Sm9lYW5kU2V0aA resolves YES

Background

Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, 2026, about a week after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in joint US-Israeli strikes. The 56-year-old was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts. Khamenei has largely kept a low profile, not giving public lectures, Friday sermons, or political addresses – to the point that many Iranians have not heard his voice. He has not been seen publicly since February 28, when the Israeli air strike killed his father and wife. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been heard from since the start of the conflict.

Considerations

The Israeli military has threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the new supreme leader would need approval from the US or "he's not going to last long." Given the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and explicit threats against Khamenei's successor, his public appearance carries significant security risks, making video evidence particularly uncertain.

This description was generated by AI.)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be shown alive on video between March 8th and April 1, 2026?

11% chance. Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if credible video footage of Mojtaba Khamenei alive is published before April 1, 2026. The video must be from a credible news source or official Iranian state media and show him alive and identifiable. Deepfakes, AI-generated content, or unverified social media videos do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by checking major news outlets including Reuters, AP News, BBC, Al Jazeera, and official Iranian state media (IRIB, Fars News Agency). Background Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's new supreme leader on March 8, 2026, about a week after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in joint US-Israeli strikes. The 56-year-old was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts. Khamenei has largely kept a low profile, not giving public lectures, Friday sermons, or political addresses – to the point that many Iranians have not heard his voice. He has not been seen publicly since February 28, when the Israeli air strike killed his father and wife. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been heard from since the start of the conflict. Considerations The Israeli military has threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the new supreme leader would need approval from the US or "he's not going to last long." Given the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran and explicit threats against Khamenei's successor, his public appearance carries significant security risks, making video evidence particularly uncertain. This description was generated by AI.