Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if the United States conducts military strikes targeting Iran's energy infrastructure (power plants, oil facilities, refineries, or related energy production sites) before the end of the 5-day pause period, starting Monday 2026-03-23 and ending Friday 2026-03-27. Resolution is based on confirmed reports from credible news sources or official U.S. military statements. Strikes on nuclear facilities or military installations do not count—only civilian energy infrastructure.
Background
The 2026 Iran war began on 28 February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on multiple sites and cities across Iran. Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran, threatening to strike its power plants unless it opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran has threatened to hit energy sites in the Middle East after US President Donald Trump threatened to attack the country's power plants if Tehran does not open the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Israel and the US have targeted Iran's energy facilities, including oil depots in Tehran, as well as military sites on Kharg Island, a vital port for Iran's oil exports.
Trump announced a 5 day pause on the plan to attack Iran's energy sites:
Considerations
The destruction of power plants could lead to widespread blackouts and impact hospitals, water treatment facilities and food supply chains. Trump has made conflicting statements about military operations, at times suggesting the U.S. is "winding down" efforts while simultaneously threatening escalation. Iran has explicitly warned that any attack on its power plants will trigger retaliation against regional energy infrastructure.
This description was partially generated by AI.
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