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I will resolve YES if Lula officially recognizes Maduro as the legitimate president, regardless of any new numbers that come out from him or the opposition.
To be clear, if there is no official recognition and Brazil just defaults to dealing with Maduro, because they need to have a head of state to talk to, I will consider this a NO, but I will wait a while.
If the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election wiki page includes a recognition status for Brazil, I will resolve accordingly.
https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2024/07/30/como-resolve-essa-briga-apresenta-a-ata-diz-lula-sobre-eleicao-da-venezuela-sob-suspeita.ghtml
"É normal que tenha uma briga. Como resolve essa briga? Apresenta a ata. Se a ata tiver dúvida entre a oposição e a situação, a oposição entra com um recurso e vai esperar na Justiça o processo. E vai ter uma decisão, que a gente tem que acatar. Eu estou convencido que é um processo normal, tranquilo"
Translation: he is waiting for some made-up proofs that he can hide behind
Lula is allegedly furious at Gleisi Hoffman (National President of the Worker's Party) for breaking radio silence and supporting Maduro.
https://www.canalmeio.com.br/2024/07/30/lula-cobrou-informacoes-sobre-nota-do-pt-a-respeito-da-venezuela-nesta-manha/
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/macroeconomia/venezuela-e-cuba-ainda-devem-us-529-milhoes-ao-brasil-de-emprestimos-do-bndes/
Not recognizing results will nearly guarantee Venezuela's debt to BNDES will not be paid under Maduro. It's a loss for Lula to recognize the results because it will look bad, but it may a bigger loss to not recognize them, both financially and reputationally ("see that's what happens when you lend money to commies"). This is ammunition for the opposition no matter what Lula does.
As an individual, I think Lula would like to support Maduro, but that would massively destabilize his position in Brazil which is already precarious - too many business interests important to his support already think he's a dirty commie.
The Brazilian Foreign Relations Ministry has also been quite cautious on the matter, refusing to take strong stances on the issue: https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/itamaraty-sauda-eleicao-pacifica-na-venezuela-mas-diz-aguardar-envio-de-dados/
While I do think Lula is an old commie, I also know he's a shrewd politician and he is smart enough not to go against his own government in important matters.