Minnows vs. Whales: In WvM, will traders hold at least 10000x as many NO shares as there are traders holding YES shares?
43
1.8kṀ12k
resolved Apr 30
Resolved
YES

This market resolves based on the final state of Isaac's WvM market:

Team Minnow from that market gets 1 point for each 10,000 NO shares they collectively hold in that market

Team Whale from that market gets 1 point for each trader holding YES shares in that market.

The team with the most points at close wins.

I'll attempt to close this market soon after the other closes, but no promises on exactly how long the delay will be, due to the randomness of the close criteria of WvM.

Clarifications:

  • I phrased the market description in terms of "points" to make it more intuitive, but the title is the technically correct resolution. i.e. Team Minnow can get fractional points, and they'll win a tie.

  • Bot accounts that "do their own thing" on Manifold and have a good reason to exist as a separate account (e.g. @acc and @Botlab), will be counted towards Team Whale's points. Alt accounts that only exist to be someone's second account won't be counted towards Team Whale's points, since otherwise Team Whale can trivially win by having one person automate the creation of many fake accounts. Specifically, any account for which, I'm at least 50% confident is an alt, is disqualified from Team Whale's point scoring. However, I'm open to overriding this method with a different one if someone suggests a good alternative method for alt determination. (For example if someone reasonably trustworthy volunteers). I reserve the right not to enumerate alts if it mathematically can't matter.

If you have any questions or concerns about how this market will resolve, please pose them in the comments proactivly, before they actually matter.

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