This market resolves based on the final state of Isaac's WvM market:
Team Minnow from that market gets 1 point for each 10,000 NO shares they collectively hold in that market
Team Whale from that market gets 1 point for each trader holding YES shares in that market.
The team with the most points at close wins.
I'll attempt to close this market soon after the other closes, but no promises on exactly how long the delay will be, due to the randomness of the close criteria of WvM.
Clarifications:
I phrased the market description in terms of "points" to make it more intuitive, but the title is the technically correct resolution. i.e. Team Minnow can get fractional points, and they'll win a tie.
Bot accounts that "do their own thing" on Manifold and have a good reason to exist as a separate account (e.g. @acc and @Botlab), will be counted towards Team Whale's points. Alt accounts that only exist to be someone's second account won't be counted towards Team Whale's points, since otherwise Team Whale can trivially win by having one person automate the creation of many fake accounts. Specifically, any account for which, I'm at least 50% confident is an alt, is disqualified from Team Whale's point scoring. However, I'm open to overriding this method with a different one if someone suggests a good alternative method for alt determination. (For example if someone reasonably trustworthy volunteers). I reserve the right not to enumerate alts if it mathematically can't matter.
If you have any questions or concerns about how this market will resolve, please pose them in the comments proactivly, before they actually matter.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ724 | |
| 2 | Ṁ332 | |
| 3 | Ṁ162 | |
| 4 | Ṁ91 | |
| 5 | Ṁ58 |
@MayMeta whoops I made a mistake. Team Minnow collectively holds ~5.735k YES shares! So that's x67k, which is more than x10k needed for the resolution. Sorry for the confusion.
@AlexRockwell If at some point it becomes clear that Whales are going to win in WvM, a lot of people might change sides in that market. But it does seem like conditional on WvM being a tight race, or Minnows winning, that this is likely to be YES.
@JimHays I think they're unlikely to both be YES. I'm NO on both, expecting one to be YES. Given how high this market is, it seems like a good bet.
Unless of course they're both YES...
It's only a few pages to copy and paste from theUI, but I might instead just parse it from here:
https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/U3zLgOZkGUE7cvG98961/positions