Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Ban pseudonyms and require real names
Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Ban pseudonyms and require real names
8
100Ṁ646resolved Feb 3
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Elsewhere (https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-manifold-markets-require-proof), Austin Chen has said that Manifold Markets is considering requiring additional forms of authentication, potentially including government ID. This would defacto require divulging your real name *to Manifold Markets*, which isn't the same thing as banning pseudonyms or requiring real names, since they might keep your real name private and identify you publicly by your username.
Resolution: I commit to resolving this question according to whichever option gets the most support (i.e., "no" if %chance is less than 50, "yes" if % chance is greater than 50, and "N/A" if % chance is exactly 50). See here for a request to make this kind of thing a feature: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t)
#ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest
Feb 3, 9:39am: I'm resolving this to "yes" based on my commitment, but I will note that "yes" was at 2% until just before the end of the market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I think the past 10 years have shown us that "real name" policies are fairly orthogonal to security and moderation considerations. Even if there is some marginal benefit to them though, I bite the bullet that I prefer the old web approach of allowing pseudonyms. I think there's better ways to combat botting than requiring a verified government ID or whatever.
I think it would be a really bad idea to implement this feature. My intent in creating this market is to see if people will bet against against (what I consider to be) a bad feature, or just ignore it.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.