Should Manifold Markets implement this feature: Pre-commit to a resolution mechanism
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Ṁ358resolved Feb 3
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The simplest version of this feature is that the market becomes a yes/no poll, and if it closes with % chance greater than 50%, it resolves to yes, otherwise it resolves to no. I guess exactly 50% would resolve to "N/A" or "MKT"
A more advanced feature would make it more like a poll, allowing the creator to specify the choices (i.e., A, B, or C), and the market resolves in favour of the plurality choice.
Some even more complex variations (that I wouldn't recommend implementing right away, but are neat to think about)
- Specify thresholds for particular resolutions (e.g., "this resolves to yes if % chance is greater than 75%", or "this multiple-choice question resolves to whichever option has majority support, otherwise it resolves to N/A or MKT").
- Instead of a multiple-choice poll, allow ranked choice voting or whatever other exotic voting mechanism.
I commit to resolving this market to whichever option has the greatest support, but it would be really convenient if I could make a platform-enforced promise to that effect!
#ManifoldMarkets #FeatureRequest
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I guess you could mitigate that by specifying maximum trade size, which would force cheaters to make fake accounts rather than huge bets.
Or you could introduce a quadratic-voting like system, which would make buying the resolution a lot more expensive (potentially prohibitively so, if you tune the parameters correctly)
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