Argentina's inflation is at 2022 one of the highest in the world, with prices up 85.3% during the first 11 months of the year.
This market solves to YES if the MONTHLY variation of the Consumer Price Index in Argentina reaches 50% a month or more in any of the months of 2023.
This is going to be defined according to calculations from the official government agency, INDEC (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos), unless it is deemed by the press to be untrustworthy, in which case it will be replaced by the estimations of other reputable organizations, such as the World Bank.
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Monthly inflation began at around 6% in January, and rose until 25.5% December, meaning almost doubling. However, it never reached the level of "Hyperinflation", defined as 50% monthly change, so this market solves NO.
Source: https://www.bcra.gob.ar/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Principales_variables_datos.asp
According to the source below (Spanish only), the CPI will be informed in an hour and a half, so I have changed the closing time accordingly.
They expect something around 30%, down from something around 40%, which would solve this market as NO. I would be actually solving the market sometime this week.
Last minutes to earn some Mana!
- https://www.tycsports.com/interes-general/a-que-hora-anuncian-la-inflacion-de-diciembre-manana-jueves-11-de-enero-2024-id557023.html
@Svenbonne This market will be open until the end of january 2024. That is, next year.
All that it takes for the YES to win is for hyperinflation to take hold in any month of this year
@Svenbonne Please notice that I don't have any position, so technically I don't "think that 50% monthly will ocurr soon".
I also have another market on Argentina's inflation until the end of 2022, which will be closing up this month