Will nothing happen before July? (Read description)
104
10kṀ170k
resolved Jun 13
Resolved
NO
25

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire
-Zohran Mamdan wins the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor
-The Fed cuts rates
-US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal
-Israel or US military action against Iran

Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”

Copy of Polymarket question linked bellow and will likely resolve the same, however I will reserve final judgment in case of subjective/controversial resolution.

https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-june?tid=1749039662311

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polymarket has resolved no

something is happening ...

16% chance nuclear deal, 28% chance Zohran, 2% fed cuts, 34% military action. 2% Ukraine ceasefire, I'm getting like 38% lol. The military action by Israel is the big new comer.

Getting rid of the nuclear deal (because you can't have a deal and military action really), I get 45%.

So I’m seeing Zohran at 20% tops (inflated for sure), Fed at almost zero, and R/U ceasefire at very low for the next few weeks. I imagine half of this volatility then is coming from Iran stuff, but am having a hard time finding definitive markets for comparison.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 63% order

@Panfilo more up at 63%!

@brod 2500 at 61 but I gotta stop there for exposure reasons.

@brod Care for some more in the low 60's? How much?

opened a Ṁ8,000 NO at 68% order

@Panfilo can do high 60s, order up

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 65% order

@Panfilo another one up at 65%

reposted

Looking for counterparties, willing to bet big!

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