Will nothing happen before July? (Read description)

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resolved Jun 13

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This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

-Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire
-Zohran Mamdan wins the Democratic primary for NYC Mayor
-The Fed cuts rates
-US and Iran agree to a nuclear deal
-Israel or US military action against Iran

Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes”

Copy of Polymarket question linked bellow and will likely resolve the same, however I will reserve final judgment in case of subjective/controversial resolution.

https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-june?tid=1749039662311

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polymarket has resolved no

something is happening ...

israel is attacking iran https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1933315375393091617

16% chance nuclear deal, 28% chance Zohran, 2% fed cuts, 34% military action. 2% Ukraine ceasefire, I'm getting like 38% lol. The military action by Israel is the big new comer.

Getting rid of the nuclear deal (because you can't have a deal and military action really), I get 45%.

So I’m seeing Zohran at 20% tops (inflated for sure), Fed at almost zero, and R/U ceasefire at very low for the next few weeks. I imagine half of this volatility then is coming from Iran stuff, but am having a hard time finding definitive markets for comparison.