Resolution criteria

1. Source: Virginia Department of Elections feed (results.elections.virginia.gov), Loudoun County totals for the referendum.

2. Resolves to the bucket containing the timestamp at which Loudoun’s reported ballot count first goes from 0 to any non-zero value on the official feed.

3. Timestamp is the “last updated” stamp tied to that update.

4. If Loudoun reports nothing by 7 a.m. ET April 22, market resolves N/A.

5. VA DOE feed only. AP, DDHQ, NYT, etc. do not count.

The market is inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound meaning if it says between 720 and 730 if it is reported at 7:20:01 it will count but if it is reported at 7:30:01 seconds it will not count but it would count if it was reported at 7:29:59

Loudoun County is the third-largest jurisdiction in Virginia by registered voters and one of the most consequential Democratic-leaning counties in the state. It has a long-standing pattern of dropping a single very large batch as its first report on election night, typically containing essentially all of its pre-processed early vote and mail-in ballots. In recent cycles this first drop has landed roughly 30 to 60 minutes after polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET, with a modal arrival around 7:45 to 7:55 p.m. ET. Because of the size of that initial dump, Loudoun’s first batch usually moves the statewide margin meaningfully and sets the early narrative for the night, especially in a single-question referendum where there is no candidate-level noise. The remainder of Loudoun’s count then trickles in as election-day precincts report through the rest of the evening.