Will I encounter someone who has been using Manifold markets >1 month, on my EAG London trip?
10
closed May 26
37%
chance

It's about to be over, and none yet!

I stay here till 26.

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Will my trading profits be lower than @ManifoldMarkets at any point in the next year?36%
Will Manifold limit markets to 1-99% in 2023?6%
Do you like Manifold Markets?80%
Will Manifold Market be reported in multiple major news media for its controversial markets before June 2023?1%
Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?6%
Will Manifold Markets introduce real money (inc. crypto) trading before 1 Jan 2024?3%
Will I trust Manifold profit/portfolio figures on July 1?43%
Will Manifold Market be reported in multiple major news media for its controversial markets before the end of 2023?25%
Within 1 year, will I get a tattoo with Manifold Market's logo?12%
Will I still be active on Manifold Markets during July 2023?78%
In 2023, will Manifold announce a fee/fine for users who misresolve markets in bad faith?33%
Will I have paid at least 1000 USD to Manifold Markets by the end of 2024?27%
Will I go down another research rabbit hole because of a Manifold Market in 2023?75%
Will Manifold visually distinguish markets where the creator has/has not traded34%
Will Manifold Markets reach 900 engaged users before July 1st?33%
Will Manifold properly support conditional markets by the end of 2023?13%
Will a market on Manifold be used as evidence in any legal proceeding by the end of 2024?15%
Will Manifold Markets add a warning that limit orders will trigger on your own trades either sale or purchase in a market before 2023'H2?35%
Will Manifold Markets reach an exit and what will it be?