The first vote of the National Assembly on the 2025 French general budget law is scheduled for October 29, 2024 [1]. It is then due to bounce between the two parliamentary chambers until adoption.
Non-opposition (majority and minority) groups currently total 211 deputies out of 576 [2][3]. It is uncertain if all of them will vote in favor.
This question resolves YES if the vote happens on October 31, 2024 at the latest, and the tally (from any official account/website) is at least 200 votes in favor. It resolves NO otherwise.
[3] There are typically 577 seats, one being vacant at the moment.
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The first vote on the general budget has not happened on October 29, 2024. It has been delayed to somewhere in November. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/parlement-francais/assemblee-nationale/examen-du-budget-2025-a-l-assemblee-nationale-que-va-t-il-se-passer-maintenant-pour-le-projet-de-loi-de-finances_6861593.html
Unless through the surprise use of the 49.3 article by tomorrow, this will resolve NO.