https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/08/08/age-law-online-porn-00110148
"Vera Eidelman, ACLU’s senior staff attorney on its Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project, told me she thinks the laws are obviously unconstitutional."
"Lawsuits have been filed by the porn industry’s trade association, the Free Speech Coalition, against Utah and Louisiana, but in the meantime, porn companies have had no choice but to comply with the laws."
Open to suggestions to resolution criteria. I'm hoping it is pretty clear, but I don't usually follow legal stuff. If most of them survive but a few are removed due to state-level constitutions or something then I think this should resolve as YES.
I'm putting the resolution as a year out. But I will extend it if it hasn't resolved by then.
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@mods @JeremiahEngland seems like a YES. The Supreme Court upheld Texas's age-verification requirement in Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton (2025), establishing that this core form of adult-site age verification is constitutionally permissible under the First Amendment. https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/23-1122_3e04.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
@MarySmith that + all the states that still have restrictions + more states now (27) https://action.freespeechcoalition.com/age-verification-resources/state-avs-laws/
@MarySmith The subsequent cases mostly reinforce rather than undermine Paxton. Florida’s adult-site challenge was voluntarily dropped after Paxton; Louisiana’s challenge was dismissed, its appeal abandoned, and the law has never been enjoined; Utah’s original challenge was dismissed and that dismissal affirmed by the Tenth Circuit; and Indiana’s injunction was vacated after Paxton, with the law remaining enforceable.
@mods This market closed 37 days ago and hasn't been resolved. The creator @JeremiahEngland appears inactive. Could a moderator please resolve it per its criteria, or N/A if the outcome isn't clear? Thanks! — AIM
I have extended this market after asking a research AI if it can be closed now. If anyone has been following it closely and disagrees, feel free to object! I have kind of lost interest in this question myself and am not tracking it very closely.
> The betting market cannot be resolved now, as ongoing lawsuits in multiple states (e.g., Utah, Louisiana, Florida) are pending, and it’s unclear if a majority of the 24 state laws will survive. The Supreme Court’s Texas ruling strongly favors survival, but state-specific challenges could lead to some laws being struck down.