Per Box Office Mojo, "Superman" grossed $122 million in its opening weekend, including previews. I'm using the same basis for "The Fantastic Four": its total, finalized domestic gross as of the Monday following its debut.
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@JeffKirk small nitpick, but the #s available currently are still the projections/estimates as of sunday morning. in a bit, the actual precise (final-ish) weekend totals will be released. the sunday estimates are normally ~pretty good, so it would be shocking if they were off by enough to matter for this market. but just flagging that resolving now is equivalent to resolving sunday at 10am (which people might be wary of doing, given that sunday night technically hasn't happened yet)
@Ziddletwix Since it's now Monday globally, you lost me at "sunday night technically hasn't happened yet," but your earlier point is fair. As a comparison basis, Superman's "announced" total was $125M but its exact gross was $125,021,735. Clearly statistically irrelevant.
Also, I'm not sure there's ever been a $7M misread between a late-Sunday estimate and final, so I'm keeping this resolved barring a highly unusual exception. If it'd been closer (and I'm surprised it's not), that'd be one thing, but it's just too big of a deficit.
Since it's now Monday globally, you lost me at "sunday night technically hasn't happened yet," but your earlier point is fair.
what i wrote:
resolving now is equivalent to resolving sunday at 10am (which people might be wary of doing, given that sunday night technically hasn't happened yet)
the "sunday night technically hasn't yet" parenthetical refers the start of the sentence, which describes a scenario where one had resolved the market sunday at 10am. i guess i could have clarified "given that in that hypothetical scenario, sunday night technically had not happened yet", but i think the original phrasing is pretty clear (it's all one sentence).
Also, I'm not sure there's ever been a $7M misread between a late-Sunday estimate and final, so I'm keeping this resolved barring a highly unusual exception. If it'd been closer (and I'm surprised it's not), that'd be one thing, but it's just too big of a deficit.
as i said, i agree! i think people feel a bit weird about resolving on sunday based on projections (& resolving it monday morning before actuals are out is equivalent to that, we don't have any new info), but in practice the projections are pretty good so a large miss is very rare.
@Ziddletwix & fwiw while for any given movie, a large miss is rare, they certainly happen. e.g. from a quick glance (there are probably bigger examples out there), barbie's sundays projections were 155m, & the monday actuals were 162m, so that's a 7m mismatch just a few years ago (and there might be more recent examples i can't remember off the top of my head)
@Ziddletwix I figured it'd be closer than early estimates suggested even before it came out, but I'm admittedly surprised to see it getting even better reviews than Superman did.
@Ziddletwix Jfc worst internal multiplier in the MCU well I would not have predicted that
@Ziddletwix no thanks, I don't think I know domestic superhero markets enough to guess on this one :P