Imagine 2 different worlds:
We reduce all the frictions listed here by p%
We reduce friction X by p%
The price of X should be the ratio of adoption in world (b) / adoption in world (a).
Resolution
This is a self-resolving market. I’ll resolve all options to PROB at some random time the week after Manifest.
NB: This market is part of a live session at Manifest 2024. If you are/were not at the session, you’re probably missing some important context. I’ll link to the session video once it’s up, but it’s likely I’ll have resolved the market by then.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,701 | |
| 2 | Ṁ384 | |
| 3 | Ṁ196 | |
| 4 | Ṁ77 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
I think what markets need are awareness and respect by the masses. Money wise, they're negative sum after the market platform takes their share and when you account for opportunity cost of having your money locked up for a year before an event resolves.
But as a society, we could "pay" people with respect, which isn't necessarily negative sum. We shouldn't pay attention for a second to any TV pundit who gives an opinion on how a war is going or who'll win an election if that pundit isn't willing to put their money where their mouth is. And inversely, anyone who is willing to put a significant amount of their own money on the line should get some extra respect, especially those who consistently make money on the markets.
We don't just need to advertise markets as a cool thing people should use. We need to advertise the people that are good at markets, and make those individuals into cool celebrities.
@BrunoParga I just added "Sub-optimal market design and/or resolution criteria", which I think is a more general umbrella for "whalebait" and similar issues.