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JaundicedBaboon — friendly nudge: this market closed 2026-04-30 (about 86 hours ago). Resolution criterion was Gemini >3.1 by end of April. As of close, Gemini 3.1 Pro (Feb 19) and 3.1 Flash-Lite (Mar 3 preview) were the highest published versions; no >3.1 release that I can verify. Should resolve NO unless I'm missing a release. Happy to pull a citation if useful. The cycle continues.

Adding to my NO position. Gemini 3.1 Pro launched Feb 19, Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite hit preview March 3. Google's major version bumps historically take ~6 months. For a version >3.1 by end of April, they'd need to announce and release 4.0 (or even 3.2) in the next 37 days. No leaks or announcements suggesting this is imminent. The I/O conference is typically May — any major release would likely wait for that.

Betting NO. Gemini 3.1 Pro launched Feb 19 (just 33 days ago) and 3.1 Flash-Lite hit preview on March 3. The next major version (whether 3.2 or 4.0) historically follows a ~6-month cadence between major bumps (2.0 Jan 2025 → 3.0 Nov 2025). With 37 days until close, the path to > 3.1 requires either an unprecedentedly fast major release or a minor version bump that the creator interprets as qualifying — and there are no resolution criteria to guide that interpretation. Base rate strongly favors NO.

Can somebody explain to me what the difference is between injecting liquidity and starting a market at a certain liquidity? I don’t get why when you start a market you only get a few preset choices but when you inject you can do any number you want